{"id":924,"date":"2025-04-13T22:17:19","date_gmt":"2025-04-13T14:17:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.db-hk.com\/?p=924"},"modified":"2025-04-13T22:17:19","modified_gmt":"2025-04-13T14:17:19","slug":"%e5%ae%bd%e5%b9%85%e5%a4%a7%e9%9c%87%e8%8d%a1%e4%b8%8b%ef%bc%8c%e4%bb%8e%e5%a4%a7%e5%91%a8%e6%9c%9f%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e7%9c%8b%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b8%81%e7%8e%b0%e7%8a%b6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.fubairui.net\/?p=924","title":{"rendered":"\u5bbd\u5e45\u5927\u9707\u8361\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u5927\u5468\u671f\u6570\u636e\u770b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u72b6"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2024 \u5e74\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d44\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u6781\u4e3a\u5267\u70c8\u7684\u5bbd\u5e45\u9707\u8361\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u957f\u671f\u5728 50000 \u81f3 70000 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u95f4\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u6708\u4e4b\u4e45\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9891\u7e41\u4e14\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u65e2\u6ca1\u6709\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4f20\u7edf\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u6027\uff0c\u4e5f\u672a\u9075\u5faa\u4ee5\u5f80\u725b\u5e02\u6216\u718a\u5e02\u7684\u5178\u578b\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u91cd\u65b0\u5ba1\u89c6\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5185\u5728\u903b\u8f91\u548c\u8fd0\u884c\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u663e\u8457\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u660e\u663e\u5206\u5316\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\u548c\u77ed\u671f\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u8fd9\u573a\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e2d\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u957f\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u9009\u62e9\u5728\u6ce2\u52a8\u671f\u95f4\u4fdd\u6301\u6301\u4ed3\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff1b\u800c\u77ed\u671f\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5219\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u5229\u7528\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u9891\u7e41\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u4ece\u4e2d\u83b7\u53d6\u77ed\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ee5\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u8d27 ETF \u6295\u8d44\u4e3a\u9996\u7684\u673a\u6784\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u5c24\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u6784\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u9700\u8981\u5728\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e2d\u91cd\u65b0\u5ba1\u89c6\u5176\u6301\u4ed3\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4ece\u9ad8\u989d\u7ba1\u7406\u8d39\u7684\u7070\u5ea6\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4fe1\u6258\uff08GBTC\uff09\u4e2d\u8c03\u4ed3\u81f3\u5176\u4ed6\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u8d27 ETF\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u9700\u8c28\u614e\u8bc4\u4f30\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u6001\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u94fe\u4e0a\u6307\u6807\u6210\u4e3a\u7406\u89e3\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u6df1\u5165\u5206\u6790\u94fe\u4e0a\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u6355\u6349\u5230\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u5fae\u5999\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6d1e\u6089\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5f52\u7eb3\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u7ed3\u5408\u4ee5\u5f80\u725b\u5e02\u4e2d\u7684\u94fe\u4e0a\u6307\u6807\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u52fe\u52d2\u51fa\u5f53\u524d\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5168\u8c8c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u8d70\u5411\u63d0\u4f9b\u79d1\u5b66\u4f9d\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01 MVRV Z \u503c\uff1a\u5c1a\u4e14\u4e0d\u5230\u5f80\u5e74\u725b\u5e02\u7684\u4e00\u534a<\/h2>\n<p>MVRV\uff08Market Value to Realized Value\uff09\u662f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u548c\u4ef7\u683c\u8d70\u52bf\u3002\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u901a\u8fc7\u6bd4\u8f83\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u503c\uff08Market Value\uff09\u548c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ef7\u503c\uff08Realized Value\uff09\u6765\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u5173\u8d44\u4ea7\u5f53\u524d\u4ef7\u683c\u662f\u5426\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\u6216\u4f4e\u4f30\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u503c\u662f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u503c\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u4ef7\u683c\u4e58\u4ee5\u6d41\u901a\u4e2d\u7684\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u603b\u91cf\uff1b\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ef7\u503c\u662f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u5b9e\u73b0\u5e02\u503c\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u8f6c\u79fb\u65f6\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ef7\u503c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6301\u6709\u8005\u5b9e\u9645\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u603b\u548c\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u6709\u6548\u5254\u9664\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u503c\u6307\u6807\u4e2d\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u3002<\/p>\n<p>MVRV Z \u503c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u63ed\u793a\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0e\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ef7\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u901a\u8fc7\u6a59\u8272\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u6709\u6548\u8bc6\u522b\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u503c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ef7\u503c\u5f02\u5e38\u504f\u9ad8\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u5f53 Z \u503c\u8fdb\u5165\u7c89\u8272\u533a\u57df\u65f6\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u9876\u90e8\uff1b\u800c\u5f53 Z \u503c\u8fdb\u5165\u7eff\u8272\u533a\u57df\u65f6\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u88ab\u4e25\u91cd\u4f4e\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5-1724379559020.png\" alt=\"\u5bbd\u5e45\u5927\u9707\u8361\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u5927\u5468\u671f\u6570\u636e\u770b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u72b6\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"j-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/themes\/justnews\/themer\/assets\/images\/lazy.png\" data-original=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5-1724379559020.png\" alt=\"\u5bbd\u5e45\u5927\u9707\u8361\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u5927\u5468\u671f\u6570\u636e\u770b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u72b6\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5f53 MVRV Z \u503c\u5904\u4e8e\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u4f4d\u6216\u4f4e\u4f4d\u65f6\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u5bf9\u5e94\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c2017 \u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u725b\u5e02\u9876\u90e8\uff0c2018 \u5e74\u548c 2022 \u5e74\u7684\u718a\u5e02\u5e95\u90e8\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u6307\u6807\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u6781\u503c\u30022021 \u5e74\u725b\u5e02\u7684\u9876\u5cf0\u867d\u4e0d\u53ca\u5f80\u5e74\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u77ed\u65f6\u89e6\u53ca\u5230\u4ee3\u8868\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u9876\u90e8\u7684\u7c89\u8272\u533a\u57df\u3002\u800c\u5728 2024 \u5e74\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e0a\u6ce2\u725b\u5e02\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u4f46\u5176 MVRV Z \u503c\u8fd8\u4e0d\u5230\u5f80\u5e74\u9ad8\u70b9\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Puell \u4e58\u6570\uff1a\u672c\u8f6e\u9ad8\u70b9\u4ec5\u4e3a 2.4<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5-1724379576838.png\" alt=\"\u5bbd\u5e45\u5927\u9707\u8361\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u5927\u5468\u671f\u6570\u636e\u770b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u72b6\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"j-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/themes\/justnews\/themer\/assets\/images\/lazy.png\" data-original=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5-1724379576838.png\" alt=\"\u5bbd\u5e45\u5927\u9707\u8361\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u5927\u5468\u671f\u6570\u636e\u770b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u72b6\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>Puell \u4e58\u6570\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0e\u5468\u671f\u5cf0\u503c\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u8ba1\u7b97\u300c\u5f53\u524d\u77ff\u5de5\u8425\u6536\u548c\u8fc7\u53bb 365 \u5929\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u6bd4\u503c\u300d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u77ff\u5de5\u8425\u6536\u4e3b\u8981\u4e3a\u65b0\u53d1\u884c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5e02\u503c\uff08\u65b0\u589e\u7684\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4f1a\u7531\u77ff\u5de5\u83b7\u5f97\uff09\u53ca\u76f8\u5173\u4ea4\u6613\u8d39\u7528\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u6765\u4f30\u7b97\u77ff\u5de5\u6536\u76ca\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u516c\u5f0f\u4e3a\uff1aPuell \u4e58\u6570 = \u77ff\u5de5\u6536\u76ca\uff08\u65b0\u53d1\u884c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5e02\u503c\uff09\/ 365 \u5929\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u77ff\u5de5\u6536\u76ca<\/p>\n<p>Puell \u4e58\u6570\u5728\u5224\u65ad\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u662f\u5426\u504f\u79bb\u5408\u7406\u533a\u95f4\u65f6\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u53c2\u8003\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u51fa\u552e\u6316\u51fa\u7684\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u662f\u77ff\u5de5\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u8425\u6536\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u8d34\u8865\u6316\u77ff\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u77ff\u673a\u8bbe\u5907\u8d44\u672c\u6295\u5165\u548c\u7535\u8d39\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u77ff\u5de5\u6536\u76ca\u53ef\u95f4\u63a5\u89c6\u4e3a\u7ef4\u6301\u77ff\u5de5\u8425\u8fd0\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u95e8\u69db\u3002\u5f53 Puell \u4e58\u6570\u8fdb\u5165\u7eff\u8272\u533a\u57df\u65f6\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u6bcf\u65e5\u53d1\u884c\u4ef7\u503c\u5f02\u5e38\u4f4e\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u6284\u5e95\u7684\u826f\u673a\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65f6\u671f\u4e70\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u8d85\u989d\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5f53 Puell \u4e58\u6570\u8fdb\u5165\u7ea2\u8272\u533a\u57df\u65f6\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u77ff\u5de5\u6536\u5165\u663e\u8457\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u5f80\u5f80\u8fbe\u5230\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u662f\u83b7\u5229\u4e86\u7ed3\u7684\u6709\u5229\u65f6\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2024 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u4e0a\u6da8\u671f\u95f4\u7684 Puell \u4e58\u6570\u4e5f\u4ec5\u8fbe\u5230 2.4\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u5c1a\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u8868\u660e\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u8fbe\u5230\u5cf0\u503c\u3002\u968f\u7740\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u51cf\u534a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u6316\u77ff\u5956\u52b1\u7684\u51cf\u5c11\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u538b\u7f29\u4e86\u77ff\u5de5\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u6839\u636e\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6316\u77ff\u516c\u53f8\u6bd4\u7279\u5bcc\u5bcc\uff08BitFuFu\uff09\u62ab\u9732\u7684 2024Q2 \u8d22\u52a1\u4e1a\u7ee9\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u81ea\u884c\u5f00\u91c7 BTC \u7684\u6210\u672c\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7535\u8d39\u3001\u6258\u7ba1\u8d39\u548c\u8d2d\u4e70\u54c8\u5e0c\u7387\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u6298\u65e7\uff09\u5e73\u5747\u4e3a\u6bcf BTC 51,887 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c 2023 \u5e74\u540c\u671f\u4e3a\u6bcf BTC 19,344 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u77ff\u5de5\u7684\u5f00\u91c7\u6210\u672c\u5df2\u7ecf\u63a5\u8fd1\u751a\u81f3\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u4ed6\u4eec\u9762\u4e34\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u7ecf\u8425\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Puell \u4e58\u6570\u7684\u9aa4\u964d\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u51cf\u534a\u524d\u540e\u6709\u6240\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u4f46 Puell \u4e58\u6570\u4ecd\u672a\u8fbe\u5230\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5e02\u573a\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u6d88\u5316\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4e5f\u672a\u51fa\u73b0\u9884\u671f\u4e2d\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u98d9\u5347\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\u53ef\u80fd\u9884\u793a\u7740\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u8fdb\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u77ff\u5de5\u4eec\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u9762\u5bf9\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u5185\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u652f\u6491\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">PlanB \u7684 200 \u5468\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7ebf\u70ed\u529b\u56fe\uff1a\u56de\u8c03\u5373\u5c06\u7ed3\u675f<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5-1724379619583.png\" alt=\"\u5bbd\u5e45\u5927\u9707\u8361\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u5927\u5468\u671f\u6570\u636e\u770b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u72b6\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"j-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/themes\/justnews\/themer\/assets\/images\/lazy.png\" data-original=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5-1724379619583.png\" alt=\"\u5bbd\u5e45\u5927\u9707\u8361\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u5927\u5468\u671f\u6570\u636e\u770b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u72b6\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>PlanB \u7684 200 \u5468\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7ebf\uff08200WMA\uff09\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7528\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u652f\u6491\u548c\u963b\u529b\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u662f\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6709\u6548\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u5728 2018-2019 \u5e74\u7684\u718a\u5e02\u4ee5\u53ca 2020 \u5e74\u56e0 COVID-19 \u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u671f\u95f4\uff0c200WMA \u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u5176\u4f5c\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u652f\u6491\u7ebf\u7684\u663e\u8457\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u5728 2021 \u5e74\u7684\u725b\u5e02\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u867d\u7136\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u591a\u6b21\u56de\u8c03\uff0c\u4f46\u6bcf\u5f53\u4ef7\u683c\u63a5\u8fd1 200WMA \u65f6\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u6709\u6548\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u5e76\u91cd\u65b0\u8fdb\u5165\u4e0a\u6da8\u901a\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5f53\u4ef7\u683c\u56fe\u8868\u4e0a\u51fa\u73b0\u6a59\u8272\u548c\u7ea2\u8272\u5706\u70b9\u65f6\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u5904\u4e8e\u8fc7\u70ed\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u662f\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u826f\u673a\u3002\u8fd1\u671f PlanB \u4e5f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6839\u636e 200WMA \u70ed\u529b\u56fe\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ece 2022 \u5e74\u89e6\u5e95\u5230\u5f53\u524d\u4ef7\u683c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86 4 \u500d\uff0c\u800c\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u770b 7-10x \u662f\u4ece\u5f53\u524d\u8fd9\u4e00\u72b6\u6001\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">RHODL Ratio\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u6574\u4f53\u7684\u6295\u673a\u70ed\u60c5\u6709\u6240\u51cf\u5f31<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5-1724379634005.png\" alt=\"\u5bbd\u5e45\u5927\u9707\u8361\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u5927\u5468\u671f\u6570\u636e\u770b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u72b6\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"j-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/themes\/justnews\/themer\/assets\/images\/lazy.png\" data-original=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5-1724379634005.png\" alt=\"\u5bbd\u5e45\u5927\u9707\u8361\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u5927\u5468\u671f\u6570\u636e\u770b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u72b6\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>RHODL\uff08Realized HODL\uff09Ratio \u7531\u535a\u4e3b Philip Swift (@positivecrypto) \u4e8e 2020 \u5e74 6 \u6708\u4efd\u521b\u5efa\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u6295\u673a\u6d3b\u52a8\u548c\u6301\u6709\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6307\u6807\u3002\u5b83\u901a\u8fc7\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0d\u540c\u6301\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u77ed\u671f\uff081 \u5468\u81f3 1 \u4e2a\u6708\uff09\u548c\u957f\u671f\uff081 \u5e74\u5230 2 \u5e74\uff09\u7684 UTXO\uff08\u672a\u82b1\u8d39\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8f93\u51fa\uff09\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u548c\u6295\u673a\u6027\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0cRHODL Ratio \u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u957f\u671f UTXO \u6570\u91cf\u4e0e\u77ed\u671f UTXO \u6570\u91cf\u76f8\u9664\u5f97\u51fa\uff0c\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u901a\u5e38\u610f\u5473\u7740\u77ed\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\u6570\u91cf\u8f83\u591a\uff0c\u6697\u793a\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u6295\u673a\u884c\u4e3a\uff1b\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5219\u8868\u660e\u957f\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\u5360\u6bd4\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u5e94\u7528\u4e2d\uff0cRHODL Ratio \u5728\u8bc6\u522b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u9876\u90e8\u65b9\u9762\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8272\u3002\u5f53 1 \u5468\u7684 RHODL \u6ce2\u6bb5\u503c\u663e\u8457\u9ad8\u4e8e 1-2 \u5e74\u7684\u6ce2\u6bb5\u503c\u65f6\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u9884\u793a\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u8fc7\u70ed\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u9876\u5cf0\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0cRHODL Ratio \u8fdb\u5165\u7ea2\u8272\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u83b7\u5229\u4e86\u7ed3\u7684\u826f\u597d\u65f6\u673a\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6765\u770b\uff0cRHODL Ratio \u5e76\u672a\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5df2\u8fbe\u5230\u725b\u5e02\u9876\u90e8\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6b64\u524d\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u7a81\u7834\u524d\u9ad8\u540e\u66fe\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u6ce2\u76f8\u5bf9\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u9707\u8361\u884c\u60c5\u4e2d\uff0cRHODL Ratio \u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u9707\u8361\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0b\u964d\u8d8b\u52bf\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u70ed\u5ea6\u5728\u9010\u6b65\u6d88\u9000\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u7531\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u4f9d\u7136\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u8f83\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5e02\u573a\u6574\u4f53\u7684\u6295\u673a\u70ed\u60c5\u6709\u6240\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c\u4f46\u77ed\u671f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u4ecd\u7136\u6d3b\u8dc3\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u8fdb\u5165\u51b7\u5374\u9636\u6bb5\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">LTH\/STH \u5df2\u5b9e\u73b0\u5e02\u503c\u5360\u6bd4\uff1a\u4e3b\u5347\u6d6a\u6216\u5e76\u672a\u5230\u6765<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5-1724379649767.png\" alt=\"\u5bbd\u5e45\u5927\u9707\u8361\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u5927\u5468\u671f\u6570\u636e\u770b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u72b6\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"j-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/themes\/justnews\/themer\/assets\/images\/lazy.png\" data-original=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5-1724379649767.png\" alt=\"\u5bbd\u5e45\u5927\u9707\u8361\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u5927\u5468\u671f\u6570\u636e\u770b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u72b6\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>\u94fe\u4e0a\u5206\u6790\u5e08 @Murphychen \u6574\u7406\u7684 LTH\/STH \u5df2\u5b9e\u73b0\u5e02\u503c\u5360\u6bd4\u7684\u5468\u671f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u89c2\u5bdf\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u957f\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\uff08LTH\uff09\u548c\u77ed\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\uff08STH\uff09\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u718a\u5e02\u7684\u4f4e\u70b9\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u5360\u636e\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u8d22\u5bcc\uff0c\u8fd9\u65f6\u84dd\u7ebf\uff08LTH \u7684\u5df2\u5b9e\u73b0\u5e02\u503c\u5360\u6bd4\uff09\u8fbe\u5230\u5468\u671f\u7684\u9ad8\u5cf0\u3002\u800c\u5728\u725b\u5e02\u7684\u9876\u70b9\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5e02\u573a\u4f9b\u5e94\uff0c\u7ea2\u7ebf\uff08STH \u7684\u5df2\u5b9e\u73b0\u5e02\u503c\u5360\u6bd4\uff09\u8fbe\u5230\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4e5f\u5f80\u5f80\u5904\u4e8e\u5468\u671f\u6027\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002\u6bcf\u5f53\u7ea2\u7ebf\u4e0a\u7a7f\u84dd\u7ebf\u65f6\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdb\u5165\u300c\u4e3b\u5347\u6d6a\u300d\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u725b\u5e02\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\uff1b\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u7ea2\u7ebf\u4e0b\u7a7f\u84dd\u7ebf\u5219\u5e38\u5e38\u9884\u793a\u7740\u725b\u5e02\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728 2024 \u5e74 3 \u6708 9 \u65e5\uff0c\u7ea2\u7ebf\u77ed\u6682\u4e0a\u7a7f\u84dd\u7ebf\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u5728 4 \u6708 15 \u65e5\u53c8\u4e0b\u7a7f\u84dd\u7ebf\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u77ed\u6682\u7684\u4ea4\u53c9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531 ETF \u8fd9\u4e00\u91cd\u5927\u5229\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u77ed\u671f FOMO 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